Volume 16, Issue 3 (11-2022)
مرتع 2022, 16(3): 586-603 |
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Azizi N, Hosseini- Bamrood G R, Zare S. Economic study of Ferula harvesting in Bardeskan- Darooneh of Khorasan- Razavi province. مرتع 2022; 16 (3) :586-603
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1130-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1130-en.html
Department of Forest and Rangelands Research, Khorasan Razavi Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Mashhad
Abstract: (1243 Views)
Background and objectives: Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades and many studies have focused on its various aspects. Determination of future habitat of rangeland species status in present and future years by climate warning models seems necessary. It is the aim of the study to investigated whether the increasing temperature will have a positive of negativ effect on the presence of species in the habitats.
Methodology: Using 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic, in logistic regression model climate change in the next three decades (2050) and its effects on the current change of Ferula ovina species and the future, was examined and a map was created. Output maps were also grouped into four categories with a probability of occurrence between zero and one. These groups, were unsuitable habitat, (0-0.25); Habitat almost suitable, (0.25-0.5); highly suitabel (0.5-0.75) and a very high (0.75-1). Finally, by referring to the coefficients of climatic variables and topography in regression relations, effective variables for the current and future range of F.ovina were introduced.
Results: Based on the results; among the climatic and topographic variables, only the indicators related to the average temperature of the warmest season (BIO10) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) were identified as effective factors on the distribution of F.ovina species in present and future Alborz rangeland habitats. Milder (Rcp 4.5) and pessimistic (Rcp 8.5) scenarios shows that average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades rise from 2.6 to 0.3 ° C. The height of suitable habitats will be 60 to 162 meters above sea level. Under climate scenarios, 15% of suitable habitats will be lost by 2050 and current unsuitable habitats will increase by 48%. Overall; climate change and increasing temperature characteristics will cause the vertical expansion of F.ovina species to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient. This indicates that over the next three decades, the presence of F.ovina species in the habitats of the region will decrease and the risk of its removal from the southern Alborz ecosystems is evident.
Conclusion: According to the results, large changes in the distribution of this species are expected to occur under climate changes. These changes are such that they can limit the suitable climatic conditions for the life of this important and effective species in the southern Alborz rangeland habitats. To improve the conditions, the least that could be done is to control the degradation of F.ovina species habitat, by managing livestock grazing and preventing land use change. If a protective approach is applied; Collecting seeds and storing them in the gene bank of natural resources, introducing superior and drought-tolerant ecotypes with better structural and functional traits and preparing strong seeds from them are recommended.
Methodology: Using 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic, in logistic regression model climate change in the next three decades (2050) and its effects on the current change of Ferula ovina species and the future, was examined and a map was created. Output maps were also grouped into four categories with a probability of occurrence between zero and one. These groups, were unsuitable habitat, (0-0.25); Habitat almost suitable, (0.25-0.5); highly suitabel (0.5-0.75) and a very high (0.75-1). Finally, by referring to the coefficients of climatic variables and topography in regression relations, effective variables for the current and future range of F.ovina were introduced.
Results: Based on the results; among the climatic and topographic variables, only the indicators related to the average temperature of the warmest season (BIO10) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) were identified as effective factors on the distribution of F.ovina species in present and future Alborz rangeland habitats. Milder (Rcp 4.5) and pessimistic (Rcp 8.5) scenarios shows that average annual temperature in places with a probability of more than 75%; over the next three decades rise from 2.6 to 0.3 ° C. The height of suitable habitats will be 60 to 162 meters above sea level. Under climate scenarios, 15% of suitable habitats will be lost by 2050 and current unsuitable habitats will increase by 48%. Overall; climate change and increasing temperature characteristics will cause the vertical expansion of F.ovina species to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient. This indicates that over the next three decades, the presence of F.ovina species in the habitats of the region will decrease and the risk of its removal from the southern Alborz ecosystems is evident.
Conclusion: According to the results, large changes in the distribution of this species are expected to occur under climate changes. These changes are such that they can limit the suitable climatic conditions for the life of this important and effective species in the southern Alborz rangeland habitats. To improve the conditions, the least that could be done is to control the degradation of F.ovina species habitat, by managing livestock grazing and preventing land use change. If a protective approach is applied; Collecting seeds and storing them in the gene bank of natural resources, introducing superior and drought-tolerant ecotypes with better structural and functional traits and preparing strong seeds from them are recommended.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2022/03/5 | Accepted: 2022/09/5 | Published: 2022/11/1
Received: 2022/03/5 | Accepted: 2022/09/5 | Published: 2022/11/1
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