Volume 15, Issue 4 (12-2021)
مرتع 2021, 15(4): 589-602 |
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Sheikhzadeh Ghahnaviyeh A, Tarkesh Esfahani M, Bashari H, Soltani Koupaei S. Investigating geographical shifts of Astragalus verus under climate change scenarios using random-forest modeling (Case study: Isfahan and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari provinces). مرتع 2021; 15 (4) :589-602
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1106-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1106-en.html
Department of Range and Watershed Management , Faculty of Natural Resources Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan
Abstract: (2492 Views)
Climate change has far-reaching consequences on many ecosystems around the world and induced large-scale shifts in species distribution. Astragalus verus Olivier is a plant with medicinal, industrial, and soil protection value that its geographical distribution has declined considerably in recent decades. This study aimed to predict the distribution of A. verus under climate change scenarios in Isfahan and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari provinces. The stratified-random sampling method was used to collect the presence points of the species in different altitude levels in 83 rangeland places. The random forest model was used to model the species distribution in the study area. The Biomod2 package in R software was used to run CCSM4 general circulation model and assess the effects of climate change on the species distribution in the current condition and 2050 under two scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Bio1, Bio5, Bio19, and altitude were identified as the main predictive variables after performing the Pearson correlation test and removal of high correlated layers. The results showed that the random forest model had excellent performance, with AUC and TSS values of 0.9. The highly suitable habitat area of A. verus in the current condition 6917 km2, which occupies about 5.6% of the total study area. According to the results increasing temperature due to climate change will lead to a decrease in the highly suitable area of the species by about 56.5% under the optimistic scenarios and 88.3% under the pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The results indicated that the species habitat will move to higher altitudes with lower temperatures. The results of this study can be used for identifying threatened habitats and reintroduce this species to degraded habitats in the Zagros and Central Iran.
Keywords: Zagros and Central Iran, Medicinal species, Habitat modeling, Ecological niche, Species response curve.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2021/12/19 | Accepted: 2021/12/1 | Published: 2021/12/31
Received: 2021/12/19 | Accepted: 2021/12/1 | Published: 2021/12/31
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