Volume 14, Issue 1 (4-2020)
مرتع 2020, 14(1): 147-160 |
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Ghaderi S, Zare Chahouki M, Azarnivand H, Tavili A, Raygani B. Land use Change Prediction using CA-Markov model (Case Study: Eshtehard). مرتع 2020; 14 (1) :147-160
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-873-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-873-en.html
Department of Arid and Mountains Regions Reclamation, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj
Abstract: (3565 Views)
Land use is among the most important factors of natural resource management and restoration of damages caused by environmental changes. Predicting of future land uses of Eshtehard rangelands, Landsat satellite images of 1991 and 2016, and the Markov chain and CA Markov models were used. In addition, for assessing the accuracy of land use classification, overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient were used. Overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient were higher than 90% in the test which indicates high accuracy of the land classification. Processing of satellite imagery indicated that residential area in 1394 is increased. That’s conversion of rangelands into residential areas. The decrease of 1809 hectares of range lands in 2016 compared with the previous period indicates the conversion of these lands to residential and residential lands. The results of predictive matrix of changes based on the maps of 1991 and 2016 showed that during the next 25 years, the most probable change is related to the change of agricultural land to the rangeland. It is also likely that the residential areas and rangeland areas will remain unchanged or increase during the period from 2016 to 2040.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2020/04/30 | Accepted: 2020/04/30 | Published: 2020/04/30
Received: 2020/04/30 | Accepted: 2020/04/30 | Published: 2020/04/30
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