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Ghorbani Z, Jafarian Z, Ghorbani J. Predicting and optimizing the reversibility of plant species after intensive grazing using response surface methodology (RSM) (Case study: rangelands of Ghoshchi region of Urmia). مرتع 2025; 19 (3)
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1289-en.html
URL: http://rangelandsrm.ir/article-1-1289-en.html
Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
Abstract: (19 Views)
Background and purpose: evaluating the reversibility of plant populations after livestock grazing and stress period provides important information about the capacity of pastures to restore their structure and functions. In the present study, 4-year research was conducted in the pastures of Ghoshchi region of Urmia in order to predict and optimize the reversibility of dominant plant species in each edible class for a period of 4 years after intensive grazing using the response surface method (RSM).
Materials and methods: A 2-hectare site located in Ghoshchi area of Urmia was divided into two 1-hectare sites under graze and graze using intermediate fencing and was investigated for 4 years (1400-1403). In the grazed 1 hectare site, intensive grazing by deliberate 80 sheep animal husbandry for 2 weeks at the beginning of the spring of 1400 was applied and the reversibility of the dominant plant species grazed in palatability classes I, II and III, respectively, the Kochia prostrata, the Artemisia sieberi and the Stipa barbata in the spring and summer of every year from the spring of 1400 to the summer of 1403 and a total of 8 times by the quadrat transect method and plotting at the same points as before grazing and compared to the specific exclosure area and the effect species, year and season were investigated on species reversibility. Then linear regression equations and response surface method (RSM) were created and their accuracy in predicting the reversibility of species was compared with each other and the more accurate method was determined. The coefficient of determination (R2) was used to evaluate the accuracy of regression models and the response surface method. In addition, optimization was also done in the response surface method and the results were presented.
Results: The results showed that the effect of species, year and season as well as their double and triple mutual effects on the reversibility of the species under investigation is significant. The lowest and the highest reversibility of Kochia prostrata in the spring of 1400 (3.67 percent) and the summer of 1403 (105 percent), the lowest and the highest reversibility of Artemisia Sieberi in the spring of 1400 (6 percent) and summer of 1403 (124.33%) and the lowest and highest reversibility of bearded steppe species (Stipa barbata) was in the spring of 1400 (9%) and summer of 1403 (132.67%), respectively. The comparison of the mean of the significant effects showed that among the investigated species, the Stipa barbata, among the years, 1403 and among the seasons, the summer season significantly had the highest reversibility. The linear regression model with a coefficient of determination of 0.8486 was able to accurately predict the reversibility of the species under investigation. The model of the response surface method was able to predict the reversibility of species with a determination coefficient of 0.7782 and lower accuracy compared to linear regression. Assuming the ideality of maximum reversibility, Stipa barbata species, year 1403 and summer season, was the most optimal and the reversibility rate in this case was 122.97%. On the other hand, assuming the ideality of minimum reversibility, Artemisia sieberi species, year 1400 and spring season, is the most optimal and the reversibility value in this case is 29.60%.
Conclusion: The effect of the species, year and season and their interactions on the reversibility were significant. The linear regression model with higher accuracy than the response surface method model was able to predict the reversibility of the species under investigation. Consequently, the response surface method is not highly accurate in predicting the output in the presence of non-quantitative inputs. the response surface method of two optimal models assuming ideality, the highest and the lowest reversibility rate, both with a maximum satisfaction, respectively, the Stipa barbata species, year 1403 and summer season and the Artemisia sieberi species, the year 1400 and the spring season were obtained. After heavy grazing, the range should be given a chance to recover so that the dominant plant species, along with other species of each palatability class, can return to the field and ultimately the range returns to its natural state and function.
Materials and methods: A 2-hectare site located in Ghoshchi area of Urmia was divided into two 1-hectare sites under graze and graze using intermediate fencing and was investigated for 4 years (1400-1403). In the grazed 1 hectare site, intensive grazing by deliberate 80 sheep animal husbandry for 2 weeks at the beginning of the spring of 1400 was applied and the reversibility of the dominant plant species grazed in palatability classes I, II and III, respectively, the Kochia prostrata, the Artemisia sieberi and the Stipa barbata in the spring and summer of every year from the spring of 1400 to the summer of 1403 and a total of 8 times by the quadrat transect method and plotting at the same points as before grazing and compared to the specific exclosure area and the effect species, year and season were investigated on species reversibility. Then linear regression equations and response surface method (RSM) were created and their accuracy in predicting the reversibility of species was compared with each other and the more accurate method was determined. The coefficient of determination (R2) was used to evaluate the accuracy of regression models and the response surface method. In addition, optimization was also done in the response surface method and the results were presented.
Results: The results showed that the effect of species, year and season as well as their double and triple mutual effects on the reversibility of the species under investigation is significant. The lowest and the highest reversibility of Kochia prostrata in the spring of 1400 (3.67 percent) and the summer of 1403 (105 percent), the lowest and the highest reversibility of Artemisia Sieberi in the spring of 1400 (6 percent) and summer of 1403 (124.33%) and the lowest and highest reversibility of bearded steppe species (Stipa barbata) was in the spring of 1400 (9%) and summer of 1403 (132.67%), respectively. The comparison of the mean of the significant effects showed that among the investigated species, the Stipa barbata, among the years, 1403 and among the seasons, the summer season significantly had the highest reversibility. The linear regression model with a coefficient of determination of 0.8486 was able to accurately predict the reversibility of the species under investigation. The model of the response surface method was able to predict the reversibility of species with a determination coefficient of 0.7782 and lower accuracy compared to linear regression. Assuming the ideality of maximum reversibility, Stipa barbata species, year 1403 and summer season, was the most optimal and the reversibility rate in this case was 122.97%. On the other hand, assuming the ideality of minimum reversibility, Artemisia sieberi species, year 1400 and spring season, is the most optimal and the reversibility value in this case is 29.60%.
Conclusion: The effect of the species, year and season and their interactions on the reversibility were significant. The linear regression model with higher accuracy than the response surface method model was able to predict the reversibility of the species under investigation. Consequently, the response surface method is not highly accurate in predicting the output in the presence of non-quantitative inputs. the response surface method of two optimal models assuming ideality, the highest and the lowest reversibility rate, both with a maximum satisfaction, respectively, the Stipa barbata species, year 1403 and summer season and the Artemisia sieberi species, the year 1400 and the spring season were obtained. After heavy grazing, the range should be given a chance to recover so that the dominant plant species, along with other species of each palatability class, can return to the field and ultimately the range returns to its natural state and function.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2024/10/6 | Accepted: 2025/06/15 | Published: 2025/09/1
Received: 2024/10/6 | Accepted: 2025/06/15 | Published: 2025/09/1
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